In 2018, China’s foreign trade “transcripts” were announced on January 14th. The total value of imports and exports was as high as 4.62 trillion US dollars, surpassing 30.5 trillion yuan in RMB, a record high. Among them, exports were 2.48 trillion US dollars, up 9.9%, and export growth was the highest since 2011; imports were 2.14 trillion US dollars, up 15.8%, surpassing 2 trillion US dollars for the first time; trade surplus was 351.76 billion US dollars, narrowing 16.2%. The lowest since 2013.


       By country/region

       In terms of Sino-US trade, the total value of bilateral trade between China and the United States in 2018 was US$633.52 billion, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year. Among them, exports were 478.42 billion US dollars, up 11.3%; imports were 155.1 billion US dollars, up 0.7%; trade surplus was 323.32 billion US dollars, up 17.2% year-on-year.


       In terms of Sino-European trade, in 2018, China’s import and export value to the EU was 4.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, of which exports to the EU were 2.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 7%, and imports from the EU were 1.8 trillion yuan. , an increase of 9.2%. Note that customs data shows that Sino-European trade is denominated in renminbi according to real-time exchange rate data (1 US dollar = 6.7559 RMB), 4.5 trillion yuan, or about 666 billion US dollars, which is far higher than the total trade volume between China and the United States. - 633.52 billion US dollars. Therefore, the EU continues to maintain its position as the largest trading partner of our country.


       In terms of Sino-Russian trade, China’s imports and exports to Russia in 2007 were 707.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24%, accounting for 2.3% of China’s total import and export value during the same period. Among them, the export to Russia was 316.65 billion yuan, an increase of 9.1%, and the import from Russia was 390.9 billion yuan, an increase of 39.4%. If it is denominated in US dollars, the bilateral trade volume between China and Russia reached US$107.06 billion in 2018, surpassing US$100 billion for the first time, a record high, with an increase of 27.1%. The growth rate ranked first among China's top ten trading partners. The main import and export commodities are mainly mechanical and electrical products exported to Russia. The imports from Russia are mainly concentrated in energy resources such as crude oil, coal and sawn timber. Customs said that this year marks the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Russia. It is expected that there will be new developments in Sino-Russian economic and trade relations this year.


       In terms of China-DPRK trade, in terms of renminbi, China’s imports from North Korea fell by 88% year-on-year in 2018, and exports fell by 33.3%. Li Kuiwen, spokesperson of the General Administration of Customs and director of the Department of Statistical Analysis, said that China strictly abides by the UN sanctions against North Korea.


       In terms of data for the fourth quarter of 2018, China's foreign trade import and export increased by 8.8% year-on-year, which was lower than the third-quarter growth rate. In the first four quarters of 2018, China's import and export scale was 6.76 trillion, 7.36 trillion, 8.18 trillion and 8.21 trillion yuan respectively.


       Why is the growth rate of foreign trade import and export slowed in the fourth quarter?

      Li Kuiwen, spokesperson of the General Administration of Customs and Director of the Department of Statistical Analysis, responded to the situation that the growth rate of China's foreign trade import and export has slowed down in the fourth quarter. It is common for the growth rate of import and export to fluctuate, mainly due to the domestic and international economic situation. There are many factors related to the international commodity price level and the import and export rhythm of foreign trade enterprises. This degree of volatility will be reduced if viewed from a longer cycle perspective.


      Li Kuiwen said that the objective factor of the base increase last year was also the main reason for the year-on-year growth rate in the fourth quarter. Compared with the third quarter, the fourth quarter of 2018, China's foreign trade import and export increased by 5% year-on-year. In terms of the ring, the fourth quarter increased by 0.3% from the third quarter.


       The biggest hidden danger of foreign trade development in 2019

       The Customs believes that the biggest worry about China's foreign trade development in 2019 is that the external environment is complex and severe, and there are still many uncertainties and uncertainties. In some countries, protectionism and unilateralism are on the rise, world economic growth may slow down, and cross-border trade and Investment may be dragged down. With the objective factors such as the increase in the base number, the growth rate of foreign trade may slow down.


Analysis of Import and Export Characteristics in 2018


       Customs said that China will introduce more measures to support the expansion of imports in 2019.


      Li Kuiwen, spokesman of the General Administration of Customs, said that the import and export data in 2018 has the following characteristics:


       First, the annual total value of imports and exports has reached a new level. In 2005, the total value of China's foreign trade import and export exceeded 10 trillion yuan for the first time; in 2010, it exceeded 20 trillion yuan; in 2018, it reached a new high of more than 30 trillion yuan, 2.7 trillion more than the historical high in 2017. .


       Second, the import and export of general trade grew rapidly, and the proportion increased. In 2018, China's general trade import and export was 17.64 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.5%, accounting for 57.8% of China's total import and export value, an increase of 1.4 percentage points over 2017, and the trade structure was optimized.


       Third, the import and export of major trading partners has grown in an all-round way, and the import and export of countries along the “Belt and Road” has been growing well. In 2018, China's import and export of the top three trading partners EU, the United States and ASEAN increased by 7.9%, 5.7% and 11.2% respectively, which together accounted for 41.2% of China's total import and export value. In the same period, China's total import and export of countries along the “Belt and Road” was 8.37 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.3%, which was 3.6 percentage points higher than the national overall growth rate. The potential of trade cooperation between China and the countries along the “Belt and Road” is continuously released and has become a driving force. The new impetus for China's foreign trade development. Among them, imports and exports to Russia, Saudi Arabia and Greece increased by 24%, 23.2% and 33% respectively.


       Fourth, the import and export growth of private enterprises has increased. In 2018, the import and export of private enterprises in China was 12.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.9%, accounting for 39.7% of China's total import and export value, an increase of 1.1 percentage points over 2017. Among them, the export was 7.87 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.4%, accounting for 48% of the total export value, the proportion increased by 1.4 percentage points, and continued to maintain the status of the largest export entity; imports 4.23 trillion yuan, an increase of 18.1%. In 2018, the contribution of private enterprises in China to the growth of foreign trade import and export exceeded 50%, which became a highlight of China's foreign trade development. In the same period, the import and export of foreign-invested enterprises was 12.99 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.3%, accounting for 42.6%; the import and export of state-owned enterprises was 5.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.8%, accounting for 17.4%.


      Fifth, the growth rate of imports and exports in the central and western regions and the northeast region is higher than the overall growth rate of the country, and regional development is more coordinated. In 2018, the growth rate of foreign trade in the 12 provinces and cities in the west was 16.1%, exceeding the national growth rate by 6.4 percentage points; the growth rate of foreign trade in the six provinces and cities in the central region was 11.4%, exceeding the national growth rate by 1.7 percentage points; the growth rate of foreign trade in the three northeastern provinces was 14.8%. More than the national growth rate of 5.1 percentage points; the eastern 10 provinces and cities foreign trade growth rate of 8.8%.


       Sixth, the proportion of exports of mechanical and electrical products increased, and the structure of export commodities continued to be optimized. In 2018, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 9.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.9%, accounting for 58.8% of China's total export value, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over 2017. Among them, automobile exports increased by 8.3%, and mobile phone exports increased by 9.8%. In the same period, the seven categories of labor-intensive products such as clothing and toys exported a total of 3.12 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.2%, accounting for 19% of the total value of exports.


      Seventh, the import volume of bulk commodities such as crude oil, natural gas and copper increased, and iron ore and soybean imports decreased. In 2018, China imported 462 million tons of crude oil, an increase of 10.1%; natural gas was 90.39 million tons, an increase of 31.9%; refined oil was 33.48 million tons, an increase of 13%; copper was 5.3 million tons, an increase of 12.9%. In addition, imported iron ore 1.064 billion tons, a decrease of 1%; soybeans 88.03 million tons, a decrease of 7.9%. According to preliminary calculations, China's import prices rose by 6.1% in the whole year. Among them, crude oil rose 30%, refined oil rose 20%, natural gas rose 22.9%, and copper rose 3.2%.



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