Alibaba's low-key and generous layout of emerging markets in the past year.


        Although Ali officially did not disclose detailed investment data, it can be seen from the sporadic disclosure of foreign media that Ali’s total investment in overseas B2C e-commerce in the past year is expected to exceed US$5 billion:


       In March 2018, Alibaba increased its capital of Lazada, a B2C e-commerce platform in Southeast Asia, with a US$2 billion investment;


       In May 2018, Alibaba announced the acquisition of the Daraz Group, a Southeast Asian e-commerce platform. Prior to this, Ant Financial received $180 million in the wallet business of Telenor, a subsidiary of Pakistan.


       In June 2018, Alibaba led the investment of 445 million US dollars to the Indian e-commerce Paytm Mall;


       In July 2018, Alibaba acquired a majority stake in the Turkish e-commerce Trendyol for US$750 million;


       In August 2018, Alibaba led the Indonesian e-commerce platform Tokopedia for $1.1 billion;


       This is not the first time Alibaba has invested in B2C e-commerce overseas. Since the acquisition of a majority stake in Lazada for US$1 billion in 2016, Ali has been preparing for this for two years.


       We may wish to analyze and analyze the investment logic behind this $5 billion:


       First, seek global ecological development


       Speaking of cross-border e-commerce, Ali Eco's AliExpress can be said to be the originator of cross-border e-commerce. AliExpress has been in existence for eight years, serving overseas C-end consumers, offering 18 languages on the AliExpress platform, targeting more than 220 countries worldwide, with monthly visits reaching 200 million, including apps in 100 countries. Ranked first in the download rankings.


       In addition, Alibaba has Alibaba.com, an international terminal for overseas B-side customers. The international station is developing in the era of foreign trade. In the countries along the Belt and Road, the transactions on the Alibaba International Station are still very active, and the transaction volume has doubled every year.


In the past year, Alibaba has aggressively acquired the local B2C e-commerce platform, and is expanding from the global AliExpress "cross-border B2C" and international station "cross-border B2B" business to the globalized B2C ecosystem.


       After the deepening of e-commerce development, it will inevitably face the challenge of how to better match user habits and provide a better shopping experience. Alibaba is more likely to understand the strategic value of B2C e-commerce to this three-dimensional ecology than anyone else in the market.


       Second, determine emerging markets


       From the Southeast Asian markets where Lazada and Tokopedia are located, to India, Turkey and Pakistan, Ali values the market with a large population base, e-commerce just starting, and a market structure that has not yet formed.


       However, careful readers may find that Ali's B2C layout has no Middle East Gulf market.


       why?


       ePanda went to the Middle East and thought that Ali missed the hottest Middle East investment M&A in 2016 and 2017, and now there is no better target. In fact, in addition to Ali in the Middle East to seek acquisition targets, there are giants such as Jingdong and eBay, and ultimately did not have the right target.


       In 2016, when Alibaba hurled $1 billion to acquire Lazada, it was the time when the local e-commerce Souq in the Middle East was difficult to finance, and Souq's founder Ronaldo had contacted Alibaba in various relationships. After all, he could get hundreds of millions of dollars. There are not many buyers. However, Ali was busy in Southeast Asia and India at the time. The Middle East had a small population for Ali, and internally believed that various policy risks were high.


       In hindsight, it took Ali two years to figure out how to play this game.


       In the past two years, the e-commerce market in the Middle East has undergone earth-shaking changes. Ali’s largest competitor, Amazon, acquired Souq for $580 million in “cabbage prices”, and the poor Middle Eastern tyrant Alabal raised $1 billion. The US dollar created Noon, and not to mention the value of Noon, the Arab world entrepreneurial leader Albar will not sell it.


       Of course, no one can say anything about the latter. In the past two years, the data of China's cross-border e-commerce in the Middle East has grown rapidly. Whether in terms of growth rate or potential, it may become the target of Ali investment mergers and acquisitions in 2019.


       Third, pay attention to the political and economic situation in the host country


       Ali is good at long-term investment. The retail industry in which e-commerce is located involves the national economy and the people's livelihood. Whether the situation in the country is stable, tariff policy, friendship with Chinese goods, trade barriers, and political relations with China may affect Ali's risk assessment of the project.


       Pakistan has a population of 220 million. In recent years, the situation has stabilized. Alibaba has not only acquired Daraz wholly-owned, but also involved small and medium-sized microfinance services related to the economic lifeline of the country. Understand that people can see that Alibaba has sufficient confidence in the government relations in Pakistan.


       The negotiation time between Alibaba and the Turkish e-commerce Trendyol is not short. The merger and acquisition is announced in June 18, and the time when the Rila exchange rate fluctuates just in June. Ali’s merger can be said to be the one that sings the Turkish market. The stock countercurrent shows its firm confidence in the Turkish market.


       Amazon is also optimistic about the Turkish market. Amazon opened the Turkish station in October 18, and invested in warehousing and terminal delivery of e-commerce infrastructure in Turkey.


       Fourth, fancy control, and gradually acquire all shares


       Careful friends will also find that Ali's investment mergers and acquisitions rarely start with a wholly-owned merger. Generally, starting with the majority of the shares, the company first obtains control and then gradually acquires the remaining shares.


       In the case of Lazada, in 2016, it took control of US$1 billion. Later, Ali spent a total of US$4 billion to acquire the entire shareholding of Lazada, and appointed Peng Lei, one of the 18 Arhats, as CEO.


       Ali's acquisition of Trendyol in Turkey also started with the majority of shares. It is reported that Ali has achieved the purpose of a wholly-owned acquisition by agreement.


       In the recent investment mergers and acquisitions case, without exception, Ali is most concerned about control, and control can be said to be a prerequisite for Ali investment mergers and acquisitions.


       V. Pan Africa and Latin America


       Among the global emerging markets, the market with large population base and political and economic stability that is in line with Ali's investment preferences, as well as Pan-Africa and Latin America, has not yet been involved.


       In the pan-African market, Jumia is actually a very good target for Ali. Jumia belongs to the assets of Rocket Internet, the e-commerce “cloning factory”. MTN, the largest operator in Africa, holds the initial 1/3 or so shares, both the Rocket gene familiar to Ali and the African native resources. However, Jumia was in the second half of 2018 and was seeking an independent listing.


       Cross-border e-commerce has not seen much momentum in the Latin American market in the past year. Although many cross-border e-commerce companies have independently tried to stand in the Mexican market, they are ultimately due to tariff policies, user habits and acceptance of Chinese goods. No obvious easing, and eventually they withdrew from the Latin American market.


2019年01月08日

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With high, low, and strict description of cross-border e-commerce in 2018, what will be the trend in 2019?

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